Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period March 07 - March 13, 2025

Activity level: low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B9.0-C4.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 90-170
Events: class C (3-12/day), class M (2-13/period), class X (0-1/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 65-145

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 07 - March 13, 2025

Quiet: Mar 7 - 8
Unsettled: Mar 10 - 12
Active: Mar 9, 12 - 13
Minor storm: Mar 9, 13
Major storm:  0
Severe storm: 0

We expect two active episodes with possible storming event. The first one can occur about Sunday, March 9, and the second, at the end of currently forecasted period, about Thursday, March 13.

Till the first episode, we expect the geomagnetic field conditions at quiet to unsettled level.
Between these ones, oscillating about unsettled level.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere March 07 - March 13, 2025

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – March 6, 2025

The combination of relatively low total solar activity and a larger number of geomagnetic disturbances caused a worsening of shortwave propagation conditions in February. However, the outlook for March is better, not least because of the approaching equinox (which occurs on 20 April).

Solar activity will begin to increase more rapidly after the larger sunspot groups return to the Sun's disk (which is the half of the Sun's surface visible from Earth). At its eastern limb we should see their activity as early as mid-March. They will approach the centre of the disk just around the vernal equinox on March 20.

But even before that, the scenario may be somewhat different. In the north-west of the solar disk, we see a large coronal hole, which is likely to be the source of a strong solar wind that will probably affect the Earth's ionosphere sooner than we expect. But this too could be a harbinger of a further upsurge in solar activity. So - within reason - all good news.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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