Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period May 03 - May 09, 2024

Activity level: mostly moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B7.0 - C4.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 120-200
Events: class C (3-9/day), class M (0-9/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 60-220

Michael Vavra
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 03 - May 09, 2024

Quiet: May 4 - 7
Unsettled: May 3 - 4, 8 - 9
Active: possible May 3, 8
Minor storm: unlikely May 3, possible May 8
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Tonight, and also next day, we can expect an active event within at most unsettled conditions.
Other unsettled to active event is possible about Wednesday, May 8.
Between these events, we expect at most quiet conditions.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere May 03 - May 09, 2024

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – May 2, 2024

The number of sunspot groups at the present stage of the 11-year cycle varies between five and twelve. Of these, one to three can be described as active regions, whereby their size and magnetic configuration suggest the possibility of energetic flares of intermediate magnitude. A number of these are accompanied by CMEs, which, given their position on the Sun, are expected to strike the Earth. Therefore, predictions of increased geomagnetic activity are quite often made, but most of them do not come true. Conversely, if the Earth is affected, a geomagnetic disturbance so strong that it affects the conditions for shortwave propagation will develop.

CME collisions with the Earth have mainly caused magnetic storms and subsequent deterioration of shortwave propagation conditions on 21-22 April and 27-28 April. Especially in the latter case, the recovery from the disturbance was very slow, even multi-day, due in part to the decrease in solar radiation. Added to this was another geomagnetic disturbance in the late evening hours UT on 30 April, which caused a decrease in MUF and a worsening on 1 May.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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