Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period February 07 - February 13, 2025

Activity level: mostly moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C1.0-C5.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 120-250
Events: class C (5-15/day), class M (5-18/period), class X (0-1/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 100-300

Michael Vávra
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 07 - February 13, 2025

Quiet: Feb 9, 11 - 12
Unsettled: Feb 8, 10, 14
Active: Feb 7, 10, 13
Minor storm: Feb 7 - 8, 13
Major storm:  0
Severe storm: 0

We expect the nearest active event just tomorrow, i.e. Friday, February 7 or less likely at Saturday, February 8.
Another active events are, because of previous CMEs and current coronal holes, possible about Monday, February 10, and Thursday, February 13.
Between these events, we expect at most unsettled intermissions, about Tuesday, February 11, possibly at quiet level.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere February 07 - February 13, 2025

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – February 6, 2025

The current 11-year solar cycle beautifully shows how little we still know about the universe we live in. Including the Sun, which is a relatively very stable star (otherwise we wouldn't be here). Each "eleven year" cycle is different from all the previous ones, and all previous attempts to predict the next one have always failed. Better said - some of them have proven to be valid. But only some.

The current developments do not appear to be complex. Coronal holes 11 and 12 were followed by the somewhat surprisingly active regions 3976 - 3971, where eruptive activity rose and fell irregularly. Occasionally including CMEs, which although they mostly did not hit the Earth, sometimes partially did.

The ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions were therefore mostly above average, but at the same time very variable. There was no way to accurately predict their course, even if only for the next 24 hours. On the other hand, there was no major disturbance that would have made them significantly worse. There is only one thing to say about the future development: it will be relatively easy to predict at first sight. But only at first sight, the reality will probably be more different than usual.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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